Ten Years at the Pump: What Presidents Control, and What Hormuz Does

Adjusted for inflation, gas has ranged from $2.33 to $5.71 a gallon since 2016, under three presidents. The biggest swings followed wars, a pandemic and a narrow strait off Iran, not who was in the White House.

By Rich Vandall · Oct. 27, 2026

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Over the past decade, measured in today's dollars, the national average for a gallon of regular gas has gone as low as $2.33 and as high as $5.71. Presidents get the credit and the blame. The record shows the biggest moves came from events no president fully controls, and this year one of the biggest has been a narrow strait off Iran.

Key moments on the chart

1. Feb. 15, 2016: $2.44 in today's dollars ($1.72 at the time). The lowest weekly average of President Barack Obama's final year.
2. May 28, 2018: $3.97 ($2.96 at the time). The high of President Donald Trump's first term, weeks after the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal on May 8, 2018.
3. April 27, 2020: $2.33 ($1.77 at the time). The decade's low after inflation. COVID-19 shutdowns had collapsed demand for fuel. A week earlier, on April 20, U.S. crude oil futures settled below zero for the first time.
4. June 13, 2022: $5.71 ($5.01 at the time). The highest on the chart and the all-time weekly record at the time it was set, under President Joe Biden, less than four months after Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022.
5. March 2, 2026: $3.07 ($3.02 at the time). The first weekly reading after the United States and Israel struck Iran on Feb. 28. Iran's Revolutionary Guard declared the Strait of Hormuz closed March 4, according to the University of Arizona's Eller College forecasting project. By April 6, the national average was $4.17 in today's dollars, up about 38% from $3.02 the week before the strikes.
6. May 11, 2026: $4.53 ($4.50 at the time). The highest weekly average of Trump's second term so far.
7. Oct. 26, 2026: $4.27. The latest reading, not yet adjusted because October inflation figures aren't out. Brent crude, the global benchmark, settled at $116.72 a barrel on Oct. 23, its highest close since April 29, after reported tanker attacks near the strait, Reuters reported.

The averages by term, in today's dollars

Averages of weekly EIA readings in each period, adjusted to September 2026 dollars with the CPI-U and calculated by The Despoiler. Before adjusting for inflation, the averages were $2.16, $2.48, $3.46 and $3.46. Obama's figure covers only his final year, and Trump's second term is still underway.

What threw off each average

Each president's number above includes shocks that started far from the White House. These are the biggest ones on the chart. The "before and without" averages below are The Despoiler's calculations from the same inflation-adjusted weekly data.

• Obama's last year (2016). His figure covers only about a year, when prices were still near the bottom of the chart. On Dec. 10, 2016, Russia and other non-OPEC producers agreed to cut 558,000 barrels a day, on top of a 1.2 million-barrel OPEC cut that took effect Jan. 1, 2017, as he left office, according to the Anchorage Daily News.
• Trump's first term (2017–2021): pulled down by a pandemic. Hurricane Harvey hit the Gulf Coast refineries Aug. 25, 2017, and the national average jumped 28 cents in a week, the EIA reported. Then COVID-19 cut U.S. gasoline demand to 5.85 million barrels a day in April 2020, the lowest since 1974, according to the EIA, and U.S. crude futures settled at −$37.63 a barrel on April 20, 2020, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission reported. OPEC and its allies agreed to cut 9.7 million barrels a day that month, Reuters reported. Before the pandemic hit in March 2020, his average was $3.45 in today's dollars, compared with $3.30 for the full term.
• Biden (2021–2025): pushed up by a war in Europe. He took office as demand came back from the pandemic, and U.S. refining capacity had fallen 4.5% between the start of 2020 and the start of 2021 as plants closed, the EIA reported. Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, Brent crude neared $140 a barrel on March 7, according to Upstream, and gas set its record in June. In October 2022, OPEC and its allies cut their output limit by 2 million barrels a day, World Oil reported. Leaving out March through December 2022, his average was $3.74 in today's dollars, compared with $3.93 for the full term.
• Trump's second term (2025–): low, then a war. In 2025, eight OPEC-allied producers unwound 2.2 million barrels a day of output cuts, and Brent was about $71 a barrel in August, S&P Global Platts reported. Gas fell under $3 in December 2025 for the first time since the pandemic, according to the EIA. Then the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran began Feb. 28, 2026. By April, the EIA reported the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and Gulf producers had shut in 7.5 million barrels a day in March, S&P Global reported. Brent briefly reached $126.41 in late April, ABC7 reported. Before the war, his second-term average was $3.19 in today's dollars; with the war, it's $3.54 so far.

Analysis: whose policies helped drivers in the long run?

No president sets the world price of oil, and most economists agree. In a 2012 University of Chicago Booth survey, 36 of 39 leading economists agreed that changes in U.S. gas prices over the previous decade were mainly due to market factors, not federal policy; none disagreed. But presidents do make choices that nudge supply, demand and crisis response. Here is how the record looks on the measures that can be checked, judged only by what drivers pay. It doesn't weigh the security, climate or other goals behind each policy.

• Domestic production: a wash. U.S. crude output set records under Trump in 2019 (12.3 million barrels a day), under Biden in 2023 and 2024 (12.9 and 13.2) and under Trump again in 2025 (13.6), according to the EIA. Biden's January 2021 pause on new federal leases was blocked by a federal judge that June, the Associated Press reported, and Trump's 2025 "Unleashing American Energy" order pushed more leasing. We found no study that measures an effect of either on pump prices. In a Dallas Federal Reserve survey in mid-2025, drillers said they needed about $65 a barrel to drill profitably, and one executive blamed tariffs for volatility: "Drill, baby, drill will not happen with this level of volatility," Axios reported.
• The emergency reserve: helped in 2022, with a cost later. Biden released 180 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve starting in 2022. The Treasury Department estimated the U.S. releases lowered gas by 13 to 33 cents a gallon; a Boston University analysis said many analysts expected closer to 15 cents. The government sold at about $95 a barrel and bought back at $72.67, CNN reported. But the sales left the reserve at its lowest level since 1983 in 2023, with less cushion for the next crisis. In Trump's first term, a 2020 plan to buy 77 million barrels while oil was cheap died when Congress left out the money, CNBC reported. This year his administration has drawn the reserve down to 283 million barrels, its lowest since 1982, Reuters reported.
• Using less gas: helped, and now being reversed. The Transportation Department estimated the 2024 fuel-economy rule would save drivers $600 to $700 per vehicle in fuel over its lifetime, Electrek reported. The administration proposed in December 2025 to loosen it, which it says would cut new-vehicle prices by about $900, according to the law firm DLA Piper; that proposal gave no estimate of the added fuel cost.
• Taking oil off the market: hurt. After the 2018 exit from the Iran nuclear deal, Iran's exports fell from at least 2.5 million barrels a day to under 1 million, Reuters reported, though gas moved only modestly. The 2025 tariffs of 10% on Canadian energy and 25% on Mexican crude drew estimates of 20 to 30 cents a gallon in the short run, the American Action Forum reported. And the 2026 war with Iran coincided with the largest supply disruption on the chart.

Weighed only by pump prices, the evidence doesn't crown one president. The policies that most clearly helped drivers were ones that kept supply steady or cut demand: high domestic output, which grew under all three; using the reserve in a real emergency and refilling it cheaply; and rules that make cars burn less gas. The policies that most clearly hurt were ones that took oil off the world market or invited a supply shock, and the biggest of those this decade is the war now underway. Supporters of the 2018 sanctions and the 2026 strikes argue that security goals outweigh fuel costs, and critics of the 2022 reserve sales argue they left the country less prepared for this year. Those are judgments voters get to make.

What actually sets the price

The U.S. Energy Information Administration breaks a gallon of regular gas into four parts. From 2016 through 2025, when the average retail price at the time was $2.89, the cost of crude oil made up 51.7% of the price. Taxes were 17.4%, distribution and marketing 15.9%, and refining costs and profits 15.0%, the EIA says.

• Crude oil is about half. Crude is bought and sold on a world market. When fighting, sanctions or production cuts by oil-exporting countries tighten supply anywhere, the price rises everywhere, including for oil pumped in Texas or North Dakota.
• Refining. Costs and profits shift with the season and the region, because summer blends cost more to make and some states require special formulas, according to the EIA.
• Distribution and marketing. Shipping fuel to stations, the stations' own costs and local competition.
• Taxes. The federal tax is 18.4 cents a gallon. States add their own. Ohio lawmakers suspended the state's gas tax for 90 days in late September, which WHIO reported would otherwise push Dayton-area prices close to $4.90.

Presidents do have levers. They can release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, as Biden did in 2022 and as the Trump administration did on a much smaller scale this month, when it authorized a 400,000-barrel emergency release with the reserve at its lowest level since 1982, Reuters reported. They can impose or lift sanctions on oil-producing countries, and they decide whether to go to war or make peace. Leasing and permitting policy matters too, but new wells take months or years to affect supply. None of those levers sets the world price of crude on its own.

Why the Strait of Hormuz matters so much

The Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and Oman, is the narrow exit from the Persian Gulf. About 20 million barrels of oil a day moved through it in 2024, roughly 20% of everything the world consumes and more than a quarter of all oil shipped by sea, the EIA reported in June 2025. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have pipelines that can bypass the strait, but the EIA estimated only about 2.6 million barrels a day of that capacity would be available in a disruption, a small fraction of what normally sails through.

The United States imports relatively little of that oil directly, about 500,000 barrels a day in 2024, or 7% of U.S. crude imports, according to the EIA. Most of it, 84%, goes to Asia. But because crude is priced on a world market, a shortage in Asia raises prices for every buyer, and American drivers pay at the pump anyway.

That is what 2026 has shown. U.S. gas averaged $2.94 the week before the first strikes on Iran, or $3.02 in today's dollars. Diesel hit an all-time high of $5.85 a gallon on Sept. 4, Al Jazeera reported, and AAA has said October is on track to be the most expensive October on record for gasoline, according to The Center Square. The price at a Dayton pump this fall has had less to do with anything decided in Columbus or Washington than with whether tankers can safely leave the Persian Gulf.

Is OPEC a cartel?

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was founded in Baghdad on Sept. 14, 1960, by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, according to the EIA. Its members agree on production targets, and the EIA says oil prices historically tend to rise when OPEC cuts those targets. OPEC also holds almost all of the world's spare production capacity, the oil that can be brought online quickly in a crisis, according to the agency. OPEC describes its goal as coordinating its members' oil policies and stabilizing markets.

That is the textbook behavior of a cartel, and critics in Congress have called it one for decades. Whether it works like one is debated. Members "don't always adhere to the agreed-upon production targets," the EIA says, and political scientist Jeff Colgan argued in a 2014 study in the journal International Organization that OPEC is far less able to control prices than its reputation suggests.

• It's shrinking. Qatar left in 2019, Ecuador in 2020 and Angola in 2024. The United Arab Emirates, a member since 1967, left May 1, 2026, the Associated Press reported. The EIA estimated OPEC produced 35% of the world's crude in 2025 with the UAE and 31% without it. The larger OPEC+ group, which includes Russia, produced about 46% with the UAE and about 42% without it.
• U.S. courts have stayed out. In 1981 a federal appeals court upheld the dismissal of a union's antitrust suit against OPEC, ruling that American courts can't judge foreign governments' decisions about their own oil (IAM v. OPEC).
• Congress hasn't changed that. The NOPEC bill, first introduced in 2000, would let the Justice Department sue OPEC members for collusion. The House passed a version 345–72 in 2007, and the Senate Judiciary Committee advanced it 17–4 on May 5, 2022, according to the office of Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa. It was reintroduced in 2023 and has never become law. We found no vote on it in 2025 or 2026.
• The U.S. link. In 2024 the Federal Trade Commission barred former Pioneer Natural Resources CEO Scott Sheffield from Exxon's board, accusing him of trying to coordinate oil output with other producers. Several outlets reported the complaint cited his contacts with OPEC officials. In July 2025 the FTC voted 3–0 to set that order aside, saying the complaint "failed to plead any antitrust law violation."

What Dayton can control

Dayton can't set the price of crude. But residents have more say over other energy bills, and over how much fuel they need, than they may think.

• Electric supply. AES Ohio's default "price to compare" for electric supply is 10.9 cents per kilowatt-hour as of June 1, 2026, according to the utility. The City of Dayton's aggregation program, run by the Southern Ohio Public Energy Council with AEP Energy as the supplier, charges 10.691 cents for 100% renewable power through May 2027, which the city estimates saves $16.50 a year for a household using 10,000 kilowatt-hours. Enrollment is automatic and leaving is free (877-648-1937). Anyone can compare suppliers at energychoice.ohio.gov, run by the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio.
• Rate cases. AES Ohio has asked the PUCO for about $143 million over 2027 through 2029. As proposed, a typical bill would rise $6.54 a month in 2027, $4.93 in 2028 and $2.32 in 2029, according to the Office of the Ohio Consumers' Counsel. A settlement is pending, and AES expects a decision by the end of the year. Residents can still file public comments with the PUCO (1-800-686-7826) or ask the Consumers' Counsel for help (1-877-742-5622). The City of Dayton and the Consumers' Counsel signed the settlement in AES Ohio's last rate case, in which the PUCO approved $168 million a year in November 2025 after the utility asked for $235 million.
• Natural gas. Dayton's gas utility changed hands Oct. 1, when National Fuel Gas closed its purchase of CenterPoint Energy Ohio; customers don't have to do anything, WYSO reported. The City of Dayton doesn't have a gas aggregation program that we could find, but Kettering's program offers 66.25 cents per hundred cubic feet, fixed through May 2027, according to the city. Gas suppliers can also be compared at energychoice.ohio.gov.
• Help paying. The Home Energy Assistance Program and PIPP Plus serve households at or below 175% of the federal poverty level; under PIPP Plus, customers pay 5% of household income toward the bill, or 10% in all-electric homes, according to the Consumers' Counsel. The Winter Crisis Program opens Nov. 1 through the Miami Valley Community Action Partnership (937-514-4777 in Montgomery County).
• Getting around. A Greater Dayton RTA fare is $2.40 in 2026, with daily rides capped at $5.50 and monthly at $70, the Dayton Daily News reported; those rise to $2.50, $6.50 and $80 next year. Dayton has run electric trolleybuses since 1933. Fewer gallons is the one part of the gas price every household controls.
• Solar and community energy. The PUCO kept Ohio's net-metering rule unchanged in its latest review, despite AEP Ohio's push for cuts. House Bill 303, which would allow community solar projects that neighbors can subscribe to, passed the Ohio House 77–8 in November 2025 and has been in the Senate Energy Committee since February.

When stability returns to the strait, prices have historically fallen back, the University of Arizona forecasters noted in May. When that happens is up to the talks between Washington and Tehran, and to the ships in the strait.

AI tools gathered and sorted the records for this story, checked the math and wrote a first draft. Rich Vandall rewrote, checked and edited it. How we report.