Likud Projected Largest Party in Israel as Neither Bloc Reaches a Majority
Updated exit-poll projections give Netanyahu's bloc 52 seats and Eisenkot's opposition 49, short of the 61 needed. Preliminary official results are expected Wednesday.
Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition nor the opposition led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot is projected to win a majority in Israel's Oct. 27 parliamentary election, according to updated exit-poll projections reported by Al Jazeera, citing AFP and AP, on Oct. 28.
Israel's Channel 12 projected 52 of the Knesset's 120 seats for Netanyahu's bloc and 49 for the opposition bloc led by Eisenkot's Yashar party, according to the report. Channel 13 earlier showed a 51–51 tie. A majority takes 61 seats. These are projections, not official results.
The projections shifted after election night, when three exit polls gave the opposition bloc 52 seats and Netanyahu's coalition 50, NPR reported Oct. 27.
The parties
Netanyahu's Likud is projected to be the largest single party with about 27 seats, ahead of Yashar with about 21, according to updated Channel 12 and 13 projections cited in the report. Arab parties together are projected at about 19 seats.
"What we've seen is that the Likud party is the largest party – nobody can compete with us," Netanyahu said, according to the report. Eisenkot said, "The old era is over, and Israel is starting a new era."
Turnout was 77.7%, the highest since 1999 and up 7.1 points from 2022, the report said.
What happens next
Preliminary official results are expected Wednesday and may differ from the exit polls, with a final tally expected by Friday and formal publication of results on Nov. 4, according to the report. President Isaac Herzog will consult party leaders and then nominate the candidate he believes can form a government; that person has up to 42 days to build a coalition. If no government forms, Netanyahu's cabinet stays on as a caretaker government, and a new election would be called if talks fail entirely, the report said.
Netanyahu drew criticism from Arab party leaders for describing Arab voters as "Muslim Brotherhood supporters" in posts on X, according to the report. United Arab List leader Mansour Abbas called the comments a "scare tactic to mobilise right-wing voters."